房价调控一年了,回顾调控效果,2013年将会怎样?

发表于2012-12-19    967人浏览    1人跟帖    总热度:15  

12月16日,刚刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议提出,要坚持房地产调控政策不动摇。此时,距离去年工作会议提出的“要坚持房地产调控政策不动摇,促进房价合理回归”已过去1年。

伴随着11月全国房价与楼市成交数据的发布,2012年楼市已走入尾声。

经过一年的楼市调控,房价是反弹还是跳水?

今年以来的百城房价指数发现,2012年11月全国100个城市住宅均价为8791元/平方米,环比第6个月上涨,而与1月份的8793元/平方米基本持平,微跌0.02%。

其中,北京、上海、深圳等十大城市11月份住宅均价为15686元/平方米,环比10月上涨0.39%,与去年同期相比上涨0.15%,为今年以来首次同比上涨。十大城市房价与今年1月份的15588元/平方米相比,上涨了0.78%。

而在2012年底,北京、深圳、上海等一线城市更是传来了“暴涨”、“倒房号”、“抢房”等声音,恐慌情绪在蔓延。不过,北京、深圳数据显示,11月份成交的物业以大众化的普通住宅为主。

刚需为何选择在原本传统意义上的楼市淡季入场?

一年来,虽然住建部、统计局、国土部等部门一再表态坚决不放松房地产调控,然而始终未见有新的、更严厉的房地产调控政策出台。房价也在悄悄地涨起来了。

北京的购房者陈先生对21世纪网表示,“半年前看中的房子没舍得买,想等等新的调控措施压压房价再买,现在已涨了近40万,后悔死了!”

中介代理闫权认为:“今年前10个月累计起来的需求都积累到了11月释放,是造成楼市年底爆发的一个原因。”憋了许久的刚需们,面对“喊话”调控下未跌反涨的房价,在年底忍不住出手了。

3轮喊话调控效果减弱年底楼市翘尾爆发

2011年度中央经济工作会议对于2012年房地产调控的核心表述是“要坚持房地产调控政策不动摇,促进房价合理回归”。

从2009年底至今的两年多时间里,国家针对住宅市场相继启动了四轮调控,相比“史上最严厉调控”的2011年,2012年的楼市调控显得温和。

1月-5月:地方频现“微调”,政府密集喊话,房价微跌

今年上半年的楼市调控,更多的是政府与地方“微调”之间的博弈。

上半年,中央宏观经济的微调政策波及房地产,加上地方政府执行政策变相放松,市场预期逆转,据不完全统计,上半年全国有近40个城市明确发文微调了楼市政策。针对地方的“微调”,住建部、统计局、国土部等部门一再表态坚决不放松房地产调控,并对具体的微调措施予以纠正。

如,佛山放松了限购,住建部就会坚决让其整改,收回政策;再如,北京出现了限购资格造假的问题,住建部就会出台一份专门重申限购政策严肃执行的文件,在全国范围内开始严查购房资格造假的问题

房价在相关部门的密集“喊话”中持续了去年9月以来的下跌趋势,据中指院统计数据,5月份百城住宅均价8684元/平方米,实现了同比、环比双降,但跌幅已在收窄。

6月-10月:楼市止跌逆涨,督查组出击摸底,刚需“观望”

半年的“观望”,楼市并没有出台新的调控政策。“喊话”式调控,效果似乎越来越弱。一方面是住建部等各大部委在不断的“喊话”,声称要对房地产市场进行最彻底的调控,一方面却是主要城市房价和交易量开始出现反弹。

进入6月,房价时隔9个月后止跌回升,中指院数据显示,全国百城住宅均价出现了0.05%的微涨,十大城市也止跌反弹0.75%,而刚刚公布的11月份数据显示,十大城市房价环比、同比首现双涨。

据住建部跟踪的主要城市监测数据,一些楼盘其实在5月份和6月上旬已出现了提价行为。以北京为例,5月份上调售价的就有21个楼盘,而6月份成交量排名前100的项目中,80%的项目成交价出现了上涨。

针对楼市的“异动”,7月24日,国务院派出8个督查组摸底全国房地产市场,有关部委重申严格执行楼市调控政策不动摇。购房者再次陷入“观望”,房价涨幅持续收窄,各方都在等在督察组报告提交后的新政出台。

但中央并没有出台新的调控措施,导致了预期发生分化,房价持续上涨。10月份,百城房价8768元/平方米,是6月份止跌后的连续第5个月上涨。

对于刚需年底的爆发,业内不少人士认为,十八大是个关键的时间点。

11月初,十八大召开后,调控政策未见有新的转向,“观望”情绪减退,不少刚需客户担心明年房价上涨开始出手买房。数据显示,11月份,北京、上海等十大重点城市今年以来首次出现同比、环比双上涨,部分重点城市房价甚至超过调控前。北京二手房的成交量和价格也在11月达到了全年最高点。

深圳国土房产局的数据显示,11月份一手住宅成交4352套,环比增加两成,成交的物业以大众化的普通住宅为主。

不过,中原地产华南区总经理李耀智指出,根据监测数据可以看出,目前市场回暖,主要还是刚需为主,在限贷限购政策不变的前提下,投资客很难进场。

虽然住建部、统计局、国土部等部门一再表态坚决不放松房地产调控,然而始终未见有新的、更严厉的房地产调控政策出台。而对于房地产税(扩大房产税试点、对存量房屋征税、二手房交易税费的提高)、个人住房信息系统建设、保障房建设、小产权房清理等政策,未见出台。

房价在“喊话”调控中震荡上涨,加上对十八大后明年经济的乐观,部分刚需在年底入市买房。

市场预期转向 2013楼市反弹或崩盘?

政策的“只喊不调”促使了市场预期向卖方市场转变,此外,供求关系的改变也在一定程度上为房价的上涨埋下隐患。

来自北京市统计局的数据显示,今年前11个月,北京商品住宅新开工面积1455万平方米,下降40.5%,而同期商品住宅的销售面积却增长了52.7%,达到1179.2万平方米。

“假定北京的库存一下子被吃掉这么多,如果没有新的填补,就会引发一段时间内的供不应求,有可能触发现在已经活跃起来的房价继续上扬。”贾康(微博)在12月13日召开的“2012-2013年住房形势与政策研讨会”上称。

12月13日,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院、社会科学文献出版社联合发布的2013年《住房绿皮书》认为,今年四季度至2013年住房市场面临着总体反弹与局部崩盘同时发生的风险,即多数城市继续快速上涨,一些城市将崩盘;多数项目继续涨价,一些项目将出现烂尾。

13日的研讨会上,对于任志强(www.gzding.com.cn)曾经抛出的“明年三月房价会暴涨”的预测,财政部财政科学研究所所长贾康指出,到底涨不涨,不能笼统地说,要具体城市具体分析。

对于多数城市,如果在房价温和上涨的趋势下,中央不采取有效措施,地方政府调控变相放松,市场预期发生渐变,便有再度暴涨的风险。但是,对于一些泡沫特别严重的城市,由于投资和投机的撤离,将导致泡沫的破灭和楼市的崩盘,对于一些缺乏实力的房地产企业或项目来说,由于资金紧张或资金链断裂,将导致项目烂尾及企业破产。

但是,也有业内人士表示:如果2013年房价再次暴涨,年轻人更买不起房了,同样也租不起房,因为房租也会随之大涨。而所有企业的商务成本为之大增,天量货币将再次涌入楼市,实业彻底沦为空洞。这种形势若不迅速扭转,离经济崩溃就不远了。“鉴于此,中央政府绝不会允许房价再次暴涨。”调控也不会只停留在“喊话”。

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  •    attilaxwd  奖励于 2012-12-19 15:12:23

 发表于2013-01-08   |  只看该作者      

2

Housing sales may rebound in 2013

Industry observers say China's real estate[url]www.relocation2beijing.com sector is likely to pick up steam in 2013, as they expect increased housing sales due to growing market demand.
The anticipation, which comes amid reports of rebounding home prices and increasing housing transactions in some cities, suggests future complications in the government's campaign to rein in the country's runaway housing prices.
Despite strict control measures, many large property developers have reported good sales and an improved financial situation in 2012, said Zhang Dawei, a marketing director with the Centaline Group, a Hong Kong-based real estate company.
"It's likely they will regain their zeal for land purchases, helping the land market to climb out of the trough in 2013," Zhang said.
Surging housing prices have been a significant source of complaints in China. The government has implemented a string of policies, including bans on third-home purchases and property tax trials, to cool the real estate sector since early 2010.
But the property market has shown signs of warming in recent months, particularly after the central bank twice cut interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio for banks to buoy the economy earlier this year.
In November, 53 cities out of a pool of 70 major cities recorded higher new home prices than a month earlier, up from 35 in October, according to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Meanwhile, total housing sales surged 9.5 percent year-on-year to 5.35 trillion yuan ($850.83 billion) in the first 11 months, up from a rise of 5.6 percent seen in the January-October period, according to the NBS.
On Thursday morning, Xinhua reporters saw hundreds of people lining up outside a housing transaction center in Beijing's suburban Fengtai district. Many were there to make their housing purchases officially legal.
"Such large crowds were not seen earlier this year or even during the same period last year," said one of the center's employees.
Hu Jinghui, vice president of 5i5j Real Estate, said that although China's restrictive policies have helped contain speculation, robust demand from first-time home buyers will continue to push up sales.
China is undergoing rapid urbanization. Its urban population outnumbered that of rural areas at the end of last year, an increase that is expected to give momentum to urban property markets as new settlers seek accommodation in cities.
Demand was temporarily suppressed over the last two years, as the malaise in the market brought about by stringent government controls was believed to have deterred many potential buyers.
Buyers began to rush into the market in November, however, as they feared an upturn in prices would soon materialize due to an absence of tougher control measures and credit policies, which many say are signs of loosening government controls, Zhang said.
"The government has mostly been reiterating (existing control measures) this year without taking further action to tame the market," Zhang said. "A string of signs like this is buoying the market."
This week, Chinese real estate developers' share prices surged on official remarks that China would "actively and steadily" push forward urbanization in 2013.
Hu said housing sales and prices nationwide will likely continue to rise in 2013, although a dramatic surge is unlikely. He added that the pace of recovery will be quicker in big cities like Beijing and Shanghai.
Experts have urged the government to stick to existing property controls and pass new regulations to offset the impact caused by the warming of property market.
"China's property controls are still in a crucial stage. It's important that the government show resolution in its efforts to curb price hikes," Zhang said.
The government has said it will stick to its property market controls next year while building millions of affordable housing units to divert demand.

Source: China Daily

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