市场预计人民币稳步升值过程将终止

发表于2011-12-10 1078人浏览 1人跟帖总热度:10

筑龙币+0

attilaxwd

扫码加入筑龙学社 · 房地产微信群

为您优选精品资料，扫码免费领取

0
+1
0

[查看我的收藏]
+1

分享至

分享到微信朋友圈 ×

打开微信"扫一扫"，扫描上方二维码
请点击右上角按钮，选择

举报点评(0) 点赞(0)

attilaxwd

发表于2011-12-10 | 显示全部楼层

楼

Firms, In Shift, See End To Yuan's Steady Gains
A significant shift in trading of China's yuan is sending signals that investors and companies expect China to halt the appreciation of its currency, despite heightened pressure from Washington.
Traders have pushed the currency to the bottom of its daily trading band for seven straight sessions, a sharp deviation from its trading patterns of the past year.
Currency trading within China is limited to a band controlled by the People's Bank of China. The bank sets the daily rate for the yuan against the U.S. dollar, and the currency is permitted to trade no more than 0.5% above or below that rate.
Until recently, most investors had viewed the yuan as a surefire bet to rise in value, and the currency often traded close to the daily rate set by the central bank, which had appreciated gradually. But now investors are betting that slumping demand for exports will prompt Beijing to slow or halt currency appreciation as a way to stave off unemployment in China's coastal regions, even if U.S. officials seek to push for faster appreciation of the yuan.
Since Nov. 1, only steady yuan purchases by the PBOC have kept the value of the currency stable against the dollar, rather than falling. Until last month, the central bank had let the currency appreciate, on average, at slightly less than 0.5% a month since June 2010, when China announced it would let the yuan float somewhat against the dollar. In Thursday trading, the yuan hit the low end of its trading limit at 6.3636 versus the dollar. It has risen about 3.5% this year.
The trading echoes a similar trend in the offshore market in Hong Kong. That derivatives market, which allows some trading outside China's borders, is closely followed by currency traders and has been implying future yuan depreciation since late September.
The reversal in market sentiment reflects worries about China's ability to continue its rapid growth in the face of a likely recession in Europe and a weak recovery in the U.S., China's two largest trading partners.
Should the global economic outlook darken further, some analysts argue, China could freeze the value of the yuan against the dollar, as it did in July 2008, even before the global economy plunged into recession.
The central bank didn't respond to requests for comment about the yuan.
Recent uncertainty about the direction of the yuan has prompted some companies to put in place complex derivatives trades to protect themselves against both a rise and a fall in the yuan.
The derivative transactions reflect 'a more neutral stance' on the yuan, said Beng-Hong Lee, head of foreign-exchange trading in China for Deutsche Bank AG.
Trina Solar Ltd., a Chinese manufacturer listed in the New York Stock Exchange, recently bought so-called call and put options on the yuan from Deutsche Bank, a transaction aimed at protecting itself from both appreciation and depreciation in the Chinese currency. Previously, the company, which sells most of its solar products overseas while making its products in China, only used derivatives trades to hedge against yuan appreciation.
A call is an option to buy the yuan at a preset price, and a put is an option to sell the currency at a preset price.
'Going forward, we think the yuan is going to fluctuate up and down a lot more, and it's not just a one-way bet,' said Terry Wang, Trina's chief financial officer. 'We are looking to do more options trades to smooth out our cost structure and minimize the impact of foreign-exchange fluctuations on our balance sheet.'
Companies overseas are beginning to adjust to the yuan's increased volatility, too.
'As the market no longer sees a straight-line appreciation for the yuan, a lot of Hong Kong exporters receiving yuan as payments are starting to use options to manage their yuan exposure,' said Candy Ho, head of yuan business development in the Asia-Pacific region for HSBC Holdings PLC.
Reduced expectations for appreciation have also contributed to a slowdown in the growth of yuan deposits in Hong Kong─the only place where the currency can trade freely─and have cut demand for yuan-denominated bonds sold in the territory, dubbed 'dim sum' bonds.
Tim McCarthy, chief executive of Nikko Asset Management Co. in Tokyo, said he expects the yuan to appreciate at a much muted pace next year as China shifts its attention to bolstering growth from fighting inflation.
The bleaker outlook for the yuan would make investors more cautious about buying assets denominated in the currency, like the dim sum bonds that until recently had been dominated by a desire among global investors to bet on yuan's rise.
'You have to watch the [issuers' credit-worthiness],' said Mr. McCarthy, whose firm manages a $200 million yuan-bond fund.
Still, the currency swings represent another step toward the internationalization of the yuan, analysts say, as it starts to move up and down like other currencies─albeit in a limited range.
Investors note that there are a number of factors that could temper any move by China to halt the currency's appreciation.
First, the global economy isn't in as perilous a state as it was in 2008, when it last froze the value of the yuan. Second, the Chinese economy relies less on exports than it did three years ago. And third─and perhaps most importantly─China's currency policies have become a central issue in the U.S. presidential election.
'A halt in Chinese appreciation would play very badly politically in the United States, especially entering the election year with very slow growth and high unemployment,' said Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington D.C. think tank.
Peterson Institute economists estimate the yuan remains about 25% undervalued against the dollar, although it has risen 7.4% against the U.S. currency since June 2010.
The U.S. Senate has already passed legislation threatening to penalize China over its currency policies. While the Republican leadership has held up consideration of the bill in the House of Representatives, a slowdown in the yuan's appreciation could renew efforts to pass the bill.
Although President Obama hasn't endorsed the Senate legislation, his administration continues to press China to boost the pace of appreciation and is bound to continue to do so during a presidential campaign in which he is being hammered on China by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
Mr. Romney contends that the president 'has failed to confront China' over currency issues, his spokeswoman said, a charge the Obama campaign rejects. Mr. Obama has 'stood up for American workers and enforced trade laws against China,' said an Obama spokesman, who accused Mr. Romney of acting inconsistently on China trade issues.
Beijing factors U.S. presidential politics into its currency calculations, but it has its own domestic worries to consider as well. China must 'balance outside pressures on the currency to appreciate with investors who increasingly are worried about China's overall economy, which would mean a weaker currency,' said Peng Junming, a former PBOC official who now runs his own investment-management firm in Beijing.
Chinese leaders appear to be preparing the ground for some slowdown in the yuan's rise. On the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Bali, Indonesia in November, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out to President Obama that markets recently have put downward pressure on the yuan's value. On Wednesday, Chong Quan, China's deputy trade representative said the recent weakness in the yuan is 'a good thing' because shows China 'is not manipulating' its currency.

举报点评(0) 点赞(0)