市场预计人民币稳步升值过程将终止

发表于2011-12-10    1075人浏览    1人跟帖    总热度:10  

市场预计人民币稳步升值过程将终止

民币交易行情发生重大变化,反映出投资者和企业界预计中国将不顾华盛顿方面施加的越来越大的压力停止人民币升值过程。
交易员已经连续第七个交易日把人民币汇率压低至每日波动区间的底端,这与此前一年内的交易模式大相径庭。
中国境内的外汇交易限于中国央行控制的一个波动带。中国央行设定人民币对美元的每日汇率,并允许人民币在这个汇率上下0.5%的范围内波动。
过去,多数投资者认为人民币肯定会升值,人民币汇率通常也接近于渐进升值的中国央行所设的每日汇率。但现在投资者预计,出口需求大幅下降将迫使北京放慢或停止人民币的升值步伐,从而避免中国沿海地区劳动者失业。就算美国官员寻求推动人民币更快升值,北京也会自顾自地这样做。
从11月1日以来,由于中国央行稳步买进人民币,人民币对美元的汇率才得以保持稳定没有下跌。2010年6月,中国宣布将允许人民币对美元在一定范围内浮动;从那时起,一直到上个月之前,央行曾允许人民币以平均每月略低于0.5%的速度升值。本周四,人民币汇率跌至1美元兑6.3636人民币的下限。今年以来,人民币升值约3.5%。
这一行情与香港离岸市场的趋势如出一辙。由于有香港衍生品市场的存在,人民币在中国境外也能有一定数量的交易。这个受到外汇交易员密切关注的市场自9月下旬以来就一直隐含着人民币将会贬值的预期。
从市场情绪的逆转可见,投资者担心中国在欧洲可能出现衰退、美国复苏乏力的情况下,还能不能维持高速增长。欧洲和美国是中国最大的两个贸易伙伴。
部分分析师认为,如果全球经济前景变得更加暗淡,中国可能就会像2008年7月份一样,在全球经济还陷入衰退之前冻结人民币对美元的汇率。
中国央行没有回复有关人民币汇率的置评请求。
由于近期人民币的走向不确定,一些企业已经开始配置复杂的衍生品交易,既要防备人民币升值,也要防备人民币贬值。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank AG)中国区外汇交易负责人Beng-Hong Lee说,衍生品交易反映出投资者对人民币持更为中性的态度。
在纽约证券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)上市的中国制造企业天合光能有限公司(Trina Solar Ltd.)前不久从德意志银行购买了人民币的看涨和看跌期权,通过这种交易来保护自己,无论人民币升值还是贬值都不会遭受损失。这家公司以前只是利用衍生品交易来对冲人民币升值带来的冲击。天合光能的太阳能产品都是在中国制造的,不过绝大部分产品都销往了海外。
人民币看涨期权是指在未来某一时间按照事先约定的价格买入人民币,而人民币看跌期权则是按照约定的价格卖出人民币。
天合光能的首席财务长王士连(Terry Wang)说,长期来看,我们认为人民币会上下波动得更为剧烈,不再是只涨不跌。他说,我们希望更多地做一些期权交易,解决公司成本结构性问题,把外汇波动对资产负债表的影响降到最小。
此外,海外公司也开始适应人民币波动加剧的现状。
汇丰控股有限公司(HSBC Holdings PLC.)亚太区人民币业务拓展负责人Candy Ho说,市场不再认为人民币只是单边上涨,很多接受人民币付款的香港出口商开始利用期权来管理自己的人民币敞口。
市场预计人民币稳步升值过程将终止_1

European Pressphoto Agency


人民币。

人民币升值预期减弱对于香港人民币存款增速放缓也起到了一定的作用,并且减少了在香港发售的人民币计价债券(即“点心债券”)的需求。香港是唯一一个人民币可自由交易的市场。
总部位于东京的日兴资产管理有限公司(Nikko Asset Management Co.,简称:日兴资产)首席执行长马天盟(Tim McCarthy)说,随着中国的关注焦点从抗通胀转向保增长,预计明年人民币的升值速度将大幅放缓。
人民币前景变暗会令投资者对于购买像点心债券这样的人民币计价资产更为谨慎。截至不久之前,点心债券一直受到全球押注人民币升值的投资者的追捧。
马天盟说,你必须关注债券发行方的信誉。日兴资产管理着一只价值2亿美元的人民币债券基金。
尽管如此,分析人士却说,随着人民币开始像其他货币一样有涨有跌(虽然只是在一个有限的区间内),汇率的波动代表朝着人民币国际化又迈出了一步。
投资者指出,有几个因素可能缓和中国暂停人民币升值的举措。
首先,全球经济不像2008年中国上一次冻结人民币汇率时那样处于非常危险的状态。其次,中国经济对出口的依赖也比三年前小。再次(或许也是最重要的),中国的汇率政策已经成为美国总统大选的一个焦点问题。
华盛顿智库彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)所长伯格斯坦(Fred Bergsten)说,如果人民币升值暂停,可能会在美国产生非常糟糕的政治影响,特别是在进入一个经济增长缓慢、失业率居高不下的大选年之际。
彼得森国际经济研究所的经济学家预计人民币兑美元仍低估了约25%,不过自2010年6月以来人民币兑美元已经累计升值7.4%。
美国参议院已经通过了一项立法,该立法可能因人民币汇率政策而制裁中国。尽管众议院多数党共和党领袖暂时对该法案不予考虑,如果人民币升值放缓,则可能促使众议院重新考虑通过立法。
尽管奥巴马总统尚未批准参议院的立法,美国政府却继续敦促中国加快人民币的升值速度,在总统选战期间肯定还会继续这样做。在选战期间,奥巴马在中国问题上受到共和党总统参选人罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)的抨击。
罗姆尼的发言人说,罗姆尼坚持认为,奥巴马没有在人民币汇率问题上直面中国。奥巴马竞选团队驳斥了这一指控。奥巴马发言人说,奥巴马捍卫了美国工人的利益,并实施了针对中国的贸易法。奥巴马发言人还指责罗姆尼在中国贸易问题上的做法前后矛盾。
前中国央行官员、目前在北京运营着自己的投资管理公司的彭俊明说,北京在制定人民币汇率政策时会考虑到美国总统大选的形势,但也会考虑到中国国内令人担心的问题。中国必须平衡敦促人民币升值的外部压力与对中国整体经济越来越担心的投资者,这就意味着人民币会贬值。
中国领导人看起来正在为人民币升值在一定程度上的放缓铺平路。在今年11月印度尼西亚巴厘岛举行的东亚峰会(East Asia Summit)间歇,中国国务院总理温家宝向奥巴马表示,市场最近对人民币汇率施加了下行压力。中国商务部国际贸易谈判副代表崇泉周三说,人民币最近的走软是好事,因为这显示出中国并没有操纵汇率。
LINGLING WEI / BOB DAVIS
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 发表于2011-12-10   |  只看该作者      

2

Firms, In Shift, See End To Yuan's Steady Gains
A significant shift in trading of China's yuan is sending signals that investors and companies expect China to halt the appreciation of its currency, despite heightened pressure from Washington.
Traders have pushed the currency to the bottom of its daily trading band for seven straight sessions, a sharp deviation from its trading patterns of the past year.
Currency trading within China is limited to a band controlled by the People's Bank of China. The bank sets the daily rate for the yuan against the U.S. dollar, and the currency is permitted to trade no more than 0.5% above or below that rate.
Until recently, most investors had viewed the yuan as a surefire bet to rise in value, and the currency often traded close to the daily rate set by the central bank, which had appreciated gradually. But now investors are betting that slumping demand for exports will prompt Beijing to slow or halt currency appreciation as a way to stave off unemployment in China's coastal regions, even if U.S. officials seek to push for faster appreciation of the yuan.
Since Nov. 1, only steady yuan purchases by the PBOC have kept the value of the currency stable against the dollar, rather than falling. Until last month, the central bank had let the currency appreciate, on average, at slightly less than 0.5% a month since June 2010, when China announced it would let the yuan float somewhat against the dollar. In Thursday trading, the yuan hit the low end of its trading limit at 6.3636 versus the dollar. It has risen about 3.5% this year.
The trading echoes a similar trend in the offshore market in Hong Kong. That derivatives market, which allows some trading outside China's borders, is closely followed by currency traders and has been implying future yuan depreciation since late September.
The reversal in market sentiment reflects worries about China's ability to continue its rapid growth in the face of a likely recession in Europe and a weak recovery in the U.S., China's two largest trading partners.
Should the global economic outlook darken further, some analysts argue, China could freeze the value of the yuan against the dollar, as it did in July 2008, even before the global economy plunged into recession.
The central bank didn't respond to requests for comment about the yuan.
Recent uncertainty about the direction of the yuan has prompted some companies to put in place complex derivatives trades to protect themselves against both a rise and a fall in the yuan.
The derivative transactions reflect 'a more neutral stance' on the yuan, said Beng-Hong Lee, head of foreign-exchange trading in China for Deutsche Bank AG.
Trina Solar Ltd., a Chinese manufacturer listed in the New York Stock Exchange, recently bought so-called call and put options on the yuan from Deutsche Bank, a transaction aimed at protecting itself from both appreciation and depreciation in the Chinese currency. Previously, the company, which sells most of its solar products overseas while making its products in China, only used derivatives trades to hedge against yuan appreciation.
A call is an option to buy the yuan at a preset price, and a put is an option to sell the currency at a preset price.
'Going forward, we think the yuan is going to fluctuate up and down a lot more, and it's not just a one-way bet,' said Terry Wang, Trina's chief financial officer. 'We are looking to do more options trades to smooth out our cost structure and minimize the impact of foreign-exchange fluctuations on our balance sheet.'
Companies overseas are beginning to adjust to the yuan's increased volatility, too.
'As the market no longer sees a straight-line appreciation for the yuan, a lot of Hong Kong exporters receiving yuan as payments are starting to use options to manage their yuan exposure,' said Candy Ho, head of yuan business development in the Asia-Pacific region for HSBC Holdings PLC.
Reduced expectations for appreciation have also contributed to a slowdown in the growth of yuan deposits in Hong Kong─the only place where the currency can trade freely─and have cut demand for yuan-denominated bonds sold in the territory, dubbed 'dim sum' bonds.
Tim McCarthy, chief executive of Nikko Asset Management Co. in Tokyo, said he expects the yuan to appreciate at a much muted pace next year as China shifts its attention to bolstering growth from fighting inflation.
The bleaker outlook for the yuan would make investors more cautious about buying assets denominated in the currency, like the dim sum bonds that until recently had been dominated by a desire among global investors to bet on yuan's rise.
'You have to watch the [issuers' credit-worthiness],' said Mr. McCarthy, whose firm manages a $200 million yuan-bond fund.
Still, the currency swings represent another step toward the internationalization of the yuan, analysts say, as it starts to move up and down like other currencies─albeit in a limited range.
Investors note that there are a number of factors that could temper any move by China to halt the currency's appreciation.
First, the global economy isn't in as perilous a state as it was in 2008, when it last froze the value of the yuan. Second, the Chinese economy relies less on exports than it did three years ago. And third─and perhaps most importantly─China's currency policies have become a central issue in the U.S. presidential election.
'A halt in Chinese appreciation would play very badly politically in the United States, especially entering the election year with very slow growth and high unemployment,' said Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington D.C. think tank.
Peterson Institute economists estimate the yuan remains about 25% undervalued against the dollar, although it has risen 7.4% against the U.S. currency since June 2010.
The U.S. Senate has already passed legislation threatening to penalize China over its currency policies. While the Republican leadership has held up consideration of the bill in the House of Representatives, a slowdown in the yuan's appreciation could renew efforts to pass the bill.
Although President Obama hasn't endorsed the Senate legislation, his administration continues to press China to boost the pace of appreciation and is bound to continue to do so during a presidential campaign in which he is being hammered on China by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
Mr. Romney contends that the president 'has failed to confront China' over currency issues, his spokeswoman said, a charge the Obama campaign rejects. Mr. Obama has 'stood up for American workers and enforced trade laws against China,' said an Obama spokesman, who accused Mr. Romney of acting inconsistently on China trade issues.
Beijing factors U.S. presidential politics into its currency calculations, but it has its own domestic worries to consider as well. China must 'balance outside pressures on the currency to appreciate with investors who increasingly are worried about China's overall economy, which would mean a weaker currency,' said Peng Junming, a former PBOC official who now runs his own investment-management firm in Beijing.
Chinese leaders appear to be preparing the ground for some slowdown in the yuan's rise. On the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Bali, Indonesia in November, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out to President Obama that markets recently have put downward pressure on the yuan's value. On Wednesday, Chong Quan, China's deputy trade representative said the recent weakness in the yuan is 'a good thing' because shows China 'is not manipulating' its currency.

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